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Solar Power Still Sucks in a Big Way

I spent $100,000 to save $20!My numerous (and very vocal fans) will remember that I already wrote a post on how much solar panels suck. But someone who “works in the industry” told me how totally wrong I was. That post was from 2008 so technology should be totally different now right? Almost everyday there’s a story about solar panels reaching new and incredible limits in efficiency.

Please Solar, PLEASE!

I want it to work so bad. I would love to get rid of my electricity bill. Understand, I have a vested interest in solar power being awesome, if it were awesome then I could just throw some panels up and free myself of the utility company. Maybe one day that will be possible, please I wish it were. Even if I could cut it in half I would be thrilled.

So, let’s figure out what that would take. Because if it’s cost efficient, I will do it right now. Luckily for me there’s an organization that has done all the work for me and created a calculator using the latest in technology and current industry costs. Great.

Right now I use an average of 37 kwh per day. That’s slightly above average in the US (don’t ask me how my 1800 sq/ft home does that). Now to get half of that, now remember I’m using this calculator, I need about a 4.1 kW array. So how much does that cost? Luckily they have a calculator for that too.

It’s Totally Cost-Effective

think about how much money they'll save on storage!

So you're an investment banker huh?

So, the grand total is $32,800 to get rid of half my electric bill. But don’t worry, there are tax breaks for this, the federal government will give me almost 10,000 dollars so it ends up being 22,960.00 (I said almost 10,000).

Great, so now if I spend $22,960 to save $35 dollars a month I will recoupe my investment in about 60 years. That doesn’t include stuff breaking, or what happens if we get less than the optimal amount of sun. In reality it’s probably twice as much.

Sorry solar, until the cost is low enough that the investment can be recouped in a year, maybe two, you’re just not worth it.

Actually, I’ll go one step further and say that the government should stop paying people to throw their money away on a technology that isn’t ready. I’m all for more efficient panels and more research but right now it’s just burning money on a technology which probably is way worse for the environment to make than just burning the coal for the electricity.

Prove me wrong and I will love you. Until then, sorry solar, you suck.

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deepcyclebatteries 5 pts

Solar power is the conversion of sunlight into electricity. Sunlight can be converted directly into electricity using photovoltaics (PV), or indirectly with concentrated solar power (CSP), which normally focuses the sun's energy to boil water which is then used to provide power.

http://www.aussiebatteriessolar.com.au/deep-cycle-batteries/

hackettkm 5 pts

Well I liked this article. It was very helpful for me an was also great for a con for solar power. I can see both points of view. It takes over 60 years to just equal out that is insane, and don't forget about hail and snow and plenty of other weather disasters. Though I would have say it is better than killing the world. My generation will have to lie with the choices made now. Fussil fuels, when burned, add carbon dioxde to our atmospher. It acts like a green house and traps thermal energy. The sun sends photons to the earth wich turn to thermal energy. Like a green house lets in sunlight and keeps the thermal energy to grow the food, the carbon dioxide keeps the thermal energy in. This will warm the earth's surface. When ice is heated we all know what happens. It melts. With Greenland melted, the ocean will rise 5 meters putting New york and other places under water for sure. Everyone will have to move inland creating major problems. So Im just saying it might be better to use solar panels!

Thank you again, your blog was a real help.

tomryannova 5 pts

I'm in Virginia. Seems like treasuries are a better investment ( even in the low rate environment). That doesn't speak well of solar. I hope there's a tech breakthrough at some point, but it's a pipe dream for now. My bet is that the breakthrough will occur in some place a lot more desperate than us for energy -- like Japan or Germany. I think we should go with what works for us right now, use the money from the tax credits on bridges/schools etc, then buy in hard after the breakthrough occurs.

Jimminy 5 pts

You ever heard of the saying, gotta spend a buck to save a buck. in this case your also saving the environment

Jimminy 5 pts

You are obviously retarded, You would not only save money over time as the solar panels pay for themselves because you would no longer pay an electricity bill but you would also be helping save the environment. Buying solar panels would also help fund more research towards them to make them more like what you envisioned. And have you thought that the average usage of electricity by americans was way to much in the first place, do you really need that TV selfish fat mutherfucker.

checker99 5 pts

 Jimminy First, let me just say that you have come a long way despite all your obvious handicaps. Second, graduate high school, get a job, move out of your parents house and get your own place.  After that, take your own money and buy some solar panels, and let us know how that works for you. Using the Gub'ment as a proxy to tax the poor in order to fulfill your personal alternative energy fantasies is about as selfish as it gets.

Jimminy 5 pts

 checker99 Did you not read what i said?

checker99 5 pts

 Jimminy I'm sorry, I forget about your handicaps -- let me spell it out for you in a simple way so you can follow me. Solar Panels do not 'pay for themselves' unless you include the Gub'ment subsidies generously provided by taxing the children and grandchildren of the poor and middle class. Even with these Gub'ment subsidies, Solar to Electric only pays off in the 15 to 25 year time span, which is an abysmal ROI.If you're really looking at saving the environment, those dollars the Gub'ment spends on solar power could do much more good elsewhere -- for instance educating the children in this country about Return on Investment and Lost Opportunity Costs, or better yet understanding written English.Still, I fully support YOUR right to invest YOUR money into all the solar panels YOU can afford to buy, and I certainly hope you put your money where your mouth is and invest in the same folly you are advocating everyone else's money for.

checker99 5 pts

This article is EXACTLY RIGHT -- Solar is not and never will be the answer for electric power.  The Gub'ment should stop pouring money down this rathole ASAP because its all money wasted on solar that could be much better spent on other more urgent needs.

Jimminy 5 pts

 checker99 Urgent needs such as that bag of chips you are about to eat?

checker99 5 pts

 Jimminy Urgent needs such as attempting to educate the youth in this country ...

ripper3000 5 pts

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/New-Study-Solar-Grid-Parity-Is-Here-Today/

Tyler with Affordable 5 pts

Wow, $33,000 for a 4.2kW system!? That's definitely why solar sounds sucky! ;) Your equation is definitely missing a few key factors, though.$8/watt on the system quoted is more than TWICE as much as real world system cost these days. You can even see our prices here for a complete system: http://www.affordable-solar.com/ and then check out the Grid-tie Kits. They're more around @$3.50/w.You could use Chinese manufactured panels for an even lower cost, too. But assuming based on the prices in the link, @~$3.50/w, you'd actually be looking at a system cost of around 14,500 or less depending on the panels you go with. 30% from the Federal Govt = $4,350

$1.55/w from Rocky Mountain Power rebate program = $4,650 (capped @ $4,650..looks like most other utilities in Utah offer the same)Utah State personal Tax Credit = $2,000So $14,500 - $11,000 = $3500 after incentives. Even assuming your electric costs stay the same (these will definitely rise) @35/mo, that's about an 8 year payoff. This is a very rough estimate, but it'll get you a lot closer to what solar costs look like in your area.Keep in mind that all manufacturers offer 25 year warranties. Maintenance is a non-issue for most, AND consider that after the system cost equals out, you will essentially be saving $35/mo.Cheers!

ed nonymous 6 pts

 Tyler with Affordable 

If it needs a government subsidy, its a scam.

checker99 5 pts

 ripper3000 Apples and Oranges.  Oil gets subsidies come only in the form of tax breaks, and those tax breaks amount to something like 5% off their tax bill.  The petroleum industry paid some $100 Billion in taxes last year, instead of the $106 Billion they would've paid without those 'subsidies.'

ChrisVerner 5 pts

 ed nonymous  Tyler with Affordable 

Actually last year the oil industry recieved 72 billion in subsidies. Less than 1 billion went to solar....with out any incentives solar systems priced at current competitive rates will lock in a per kWh cost significantly less than what you are paying to your utility...commercial solar farms net a 10-15%  annual return on the investment annually based on total price without incentives. Do some research and know what you are talking about before you hate on something with great potential to stop rising energy costs, localize energy production (think of how much is spent on transmission lines across the country), we could actually stop invading other countries and killing people for energy, when you have no moving parts and require basically no more input to produce energy other than sunlight energy rates will be able to actually go down as the solar infrastructure pays for itself in 18-20 years without incentives and 4 years commercially and 7 years residential with incentives not 60. 

I think the problem is you don't need to be living in an 1800 sqr ft house.

I think 1 or 2 years is a bit unfair , I would do it is I could get it back in 6- 8 but that is not likely to happen in my lifetime.
Plan B is to drill and build refineries and put everyone back to work and lower the cost of energy to what is was 40 years ago. Put a 1% tax on refined goods for export and use that for research.  The environmental wackos are more dangerous than the Russians ever were.

So you want to make $22,960 in one year for the next 30 years (average lifetime of solar PV system) with an investment of $22,960 while maintaining ownership of the assets valued at $22,960 for the next 30years? That is  an ROI of 3,100%!! Good luck! At the current return of $35/month (which I think is low, and does not account for inflation and rising energy costs), you are looking at an ROI that still beats throwing your money into the black pit of the electric utilities. Why don't you go invest in stocks and bonds, there doing really well!

I'd like to see Rogers numbers.  No way pays for itself in 6 years.  Unless you're just powering a light bulb.

SOLAR PANELS IS WORKING VERY WELL FOR US. We have had it for three years and it will pay for itself in another three. Maybe you don't have the sunlight for it to make economic sense? Maybe you prefer to be dependent on others?

You can watch your cost of electricity and dependency rise while calling us idiots.
In the mean time, my wife and I are energy independent, and find your thinking too closed minded.

The fact that you consume 37kwh/day and are confused about it speaks volumes.

I'm glad that they work well for you! Congrats!

I just ran the numbers with the technology I was able to find online. If you have better resources or if you find a problem in my calculations please let me know. In other words, if you would like to constructively contribute I would be very happy to hear from you.

Thanks.

OK, I ran YOUR numbers on the calculator YOU linked to, and it shows

1/10 the cost of what you claim it is!!

Perhaps you only get 1/10 the sunlight as we do. I had to guess since YOU HAVE NOT FULLY DISCLOSED RELEVANT FACTORS (especially average hours of direct sunlight per day).

More important than finding new sources of energy, is not wasting energy. HAVE YOU FIGURED OUT WHERE YOU ARE WASTING ENERGY? Have you looked at what is consuming what?

You may claim that solar panels does not work for your location - fine. HOW CAN YOU EXTEND YOUR SPECIFIC CASE TO THE GENERAL CASE OF EVERYONE ELSE? And this is overlooking the fact that your specific case is missing some of the most important details.

Have you ever taken a class in logic or critical thinking?

What do you really have against solar panels?

Jimminy 5 pts

Roger, the first person with any sense

 

Solar power is a kind of diluted energy, which we need a large amount to be able to generate electricity.

Thought this might be relevant:

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/09/spray-on-solar-window-unveiled

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/09/spray-on-solar-window-unveiled

I agree about the technology not being ready--but on the other hand, how is it going to become ready without funding? They need the income they get from poor investments like the one pictured above.

Haha, a very interesting point. I think we really need a manhattan project level initiative to really take on energy. Personally, I'd like to see Thorium Nuclear reactors take over and we can continue to work on solar in the mean time.

this just in: http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/02/stanford-solar...

If people don't invest in solar, how will technology improve?

I agree, I think that solar is the end-all in future power needs. I can't wait for the day when we purchase a car that has integrated solar paint - or something like that - and we never have to pay a dime for fuel.

But without Mr. Moneybags forking out $22,960 to half his electricity bill, how on earth will the industry function?

What we really need is a cold war. That will stem innovation :)

checker99 5 pts

There is no problem with anyone investing their money in solar, where I disagree is 1) that its a good idea, and 2) that the Gub'ment should put any tax dollars into someone's personal solar investment.

There is tons of energy being produced naturally. The Sun is one of those very obvious ones. When the Sun gets particularly active, it overloads power grids. Just imagine if there was a way to capture that energy? Wind is another. Electricity being produced up in the atmosphere... so much of it that collecting just a few hours of that energy could power a nation for months, even years.

But alas, the mechanisms we have for collecting that energy are incredibly inefficient (like your solar panels), take up way too much space (like wind farms -- which have additional problems like animals flying through them and getting themselves killed), or are non-existent (like my magical Aurora energy collector, which looks amazingly like the Starship Enterprise).

I'm with you Dan. Solar energy is awesome, solar cells suck. Let's get some more R&D on this stuff.

You're totally right. We should keep using oil, natural gas and coal as power sources because they're cheaper. We should wait until those resources run out or we can't breathe our air anymore before we even consider something like solar energy.

Here the bottom line, man: none of us pay the actual cost of burning of fossil fuels. The externalities associated with fossil fuels are immense (climate change, acidity of the ocean, etc).

Oh Rian, I didn't say we don't have an energy problem. We do, I think it should be our number one priority to get off of fossil fuels. But there are more options than just solar, which really is just too expensive to be practical (currently). Look at nuclear for instance http://www.world-nuclear.org/images/info/finlan... It make clean cheap power. France uses only nuclear power and sells it to their neighbors. They even recycle 99% of their nuclear waste so they don't have a waste problem. The only reason the US has nuclear waste problems is that it's illegal for the US to recycle our waste.

Japan and others have found nuclear to be anything but clean and cheap on the long run.

Assuming your statement of 99% of nuclear waste is recycled is accurate (not). What does recycled mean? Is it a serious hazard for 100 years rather than 1000 or 10,000 years? And what of the other 01% (or did you really want us to think of 99% as 100%). Next time you get on an airplane, ask yourself if 99% success is good enough. If it is not for an airplane, why would it be good enough for nuclear?

Back on topic, regarding the practicality of solar panels: just because something is not personally practical to you, does not mean it is not an important solution to others.

Again, I find a great absence of insight in your postings.
Again, you appear to be unable to differentiate between short-term and long-term factors of an issue.

 Are you aware that the carbon is only a tiny fraction of what is erroneously called greenhouse gas? Has it ever occurred to you that if we have a warming period water vapour and several other contributors increase , in other words global warming causes increased levels of greenhouse gasses. Even if we eliminated all carbon emissions it would have little to no effect. The only thing that has been proved about global warming is that it has been much, much worse in the past, there has been  NONE in the last few years and when those who promote it get caught red-handed cooking the books to scare people with it the press ignores it and academia pretends it never happened. Politicians  are firing scientists who disagree with them about this, think about that, it is happening and it makes no sense.
Read the Communist Manifesto or
 www.amazon.com/Rules-Radicals-Saul-Alinsky/dp/0679721134
All you have to do is scare people who never bother to do the research and you can grab control.  Few seem to remember that 98%  of Austrians voted Hitler in to office because he promised to save them from the economic crisis, never let a good crisis go bye.
Even if you have to create it.
America has more energy than all the world combined, if we don't start using it and exporting it we will be choosing our own Hitler before long.

JamesChamblee 5 pts

That's right, wait for the entire planet to be screwed first. Choke and die before change.

Dan, I totally agree with you. I'm so excited about taking my house off the grid (except the cable that feeds back into it to make me monay!), but it just doesn't make sense yet. I wish that R&D would push solar panels the same way it does engines or hybrid cars right now. How efficient would panels need to be to make sense? If we could even get to 80% efficiency, I bet it would make sense now.

For one, you're forgetting that Utah gives you $2/W. So, you can take another $8,200 off your total bill, cutting your return on investment down to a (still unreasonable) 35 years.

So, you're right. Solar makes no sense for you, right now. Part of that is because living in Utah, you're paying one of the lowest electricity costs in the country, at about $0.08/kWh. Some places in the Northeast pay double that amount. Hawaii pays more than triple. Hawaii, by way, gives you back 35% of whatever you spend to install solar.

So, let's take the same house, same system, and move it to a place where the finances make sense. Hawaii's discount takes your bill down to $21,320. Federal discount takes that down to $11,480 as your final cost.

Remember that your utility bill is higher, so instead of saving $35/month, you'll be saving closer to $118. This investment pays for itself in a little over 8 years, if you don't count in the value that it adds to your house, just the same as any other improvement would.

I call that reasonable. Solar already makes sense for some areas, it just doesn't make sense for you yet.

That is a fantastic point. I didn't think about Hawaii. We didn't include the increased price in solar though. It's probably quite a bit more expensive to get in Hawaii. Plus it seems like they could do tidal power generation for quite a bit less in a place like Hawaii. Or even better they would probably save a ton of money by doing geo-thermal. They're in the best spot for it.

Tidal and geo-thermal are both large-scale projects, though. Completely different from installing a personal solar system on your own house.
I agree though that projects like that would make a huge amount of sense for Hawaii, which has limited enough land as it is (community-scale solar projects can take up huge swaths of land).

As far as ways to personally get involved in (and encourage) this sort of project, that's why Tirzah and I subscribe to Xcel Energy's "Windsource" program. It ends up costing us $5-20/month extra on our electricity bill, but guarantees us that 100% of our electricity is purchased from wind farms. I believe that the best way to get renewable projects to a point where they outpace traditional fossil fuel generation is by voting with my wallet. Free market FTW.

Looking around http://news.discovery.com/tech/ultra-micro-urba... this is pretty cool. Based on their numbers it would cost me around $6000 hardcost to get rid of half my electric bill which isn't too bad. If the government subsided it like they did solar then it would be like $1500 bucks. Not bad at all.

 Actually geothermal is quite successful in some applications on a small scale. Not geothermal as in using underground hot springs but geo-thermal heat pumps can make sense. My Uncle bought a cement tank designed for a septic tank and placed it in the creek next to his house and placed the coils in it . The neighbours reported him and it was a riot as you might guess.
 The thing has been operating for ten years and it works beautifully.

The money given in tax rebates does not magically appear. There is no Solar Energy fairy!  How does forcibly taking money from other taxpayers to offset the loss make it any less a loss?
It is about as logical as the battery factory they built for electric cars that have to be artificially propped up with money extorted from taxpayers as well.
If we used the oil God gave us responsibly we could put people to work , pay down the debt , and produce billions for research. This insanity of using money we don't have to prop up technology that is not ready for prime time is criminal. We are stealing from generations yet unborn .

I agree. (Wait...if I don't prove you wrong...will you still love me? Crap)